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The US National Football League was popular mostly in the country up to 10-15 years ago. With globalisation, it has slowly built a solid fan base all across the world. The biggest testimony for that was the 2017 Super Bowl. It attracted millions of viewers from different countries.
With such a high interest in the NFL, it’s only natural that many people are also betting on the games from the competition. In this article, we will try to cover the main aspects of the NFL matches step by step. This should give you a good idea how to build a successful NFL betting strategy.
Start with the stats
As with most American competitions, stats are essential in NFL. They are also easily accessible. The official website of the league is a good place to start, but there are also many other pages on the Internet that will help you gather the necessary data. Here are the most important things you need to check:
Team Stats Will Give You A Good Starting Point
The first thing you need to do is analyse the team data for each franchise. To get a proper idea, you need to check both the offensive and defensive stats.
The most important factor when it comes to the former are the average points scored. Obviously, you will get a good idea of the efficiency of the team. Other things that can help you are passing and rushing yards, total yards on offence. After taking a deep look, you will know what are the strengths of the franchise and how it is doing in the offense.
For the defensive parts of the game, the stats look in a similar way. Total points allowed, rushing yards given up, total yards allowed are the key aspects. Add them to the offensive stats and you will get a decent idea what are the strong and weak points of both teams.
Individual And Group Stats
The next step in the data analysis is to research separate key groups and players of each team. Check how the running backs and the receivers are doing in general. Give another look at the backline as well.
The quarterbacks deserve a special attention. They are the heart and the brain of each NFL franchise so make sure to check them separately. An out of shape quarterback is hard to overcome and one at his best can be unstoppable.
Try To Predict How The Styles Of Both Teams Will Interact
After you are aware of the general picture, it’s time to move on to a deeper level of your analysis. The main idea is to understand how the styles of both teams will perform against each other. Does one of them have the tools to punish the weakness of the other?
The best way would be a step-by-step comparison. Also, try to check the previous results of both teams and find a similar opponent. It’s a decent indicator of what can be expected to happen.
Finally, you should always consider physical matchups. If a team with a good defence faces a franchise that has a bigger offensive line, the stats could be misleading. Again, past results against opponents with similar physical attributes should help a lot.
Other things to consider before placing a bet
Stats are the key to NFL betting, but you shouldn’t stop there. Here are some of other important things to consider:
Always Check The Team News
This is a golden rule in betting that applies to the NFL as well. We won’t go into too many details, but you should always check who’s available and who isn’t. Also, try to understand what to expect from the potential replacements.
Motivation Can Be Different
NFL players aren’t among the brightest people on the planet. You will often see them teasing the opponents and even insulting them. This can play a big role as a good coach can use it to motivate his players. As a result, you can see a team more inspired than ever.
Make sure to check the news and search for such interviews. It’s a small edge, but every advantage you can find will help you build a successful NFL betting strategy.
New Players On The Rise
Sometimes even a rookie can make a huge difference. Make sure to follow all the hot prospects in NFL and see how are they developing. Players with lots of potentials can have some issues at the start of their career, but could slowly turn into the next superstars. If you are among the first people to catch this trend, you could benefit greatly.
Don’t Go With The General Public Too Often
Another general sports betting rule that you should generally follow, especially when it comes to American leagues like the NFL. The majority of the money come from people who rarely spend the time to analyse their bets. In fact, most of them don’t even understand the concept of positive expected value and how odds work.
They just try to guess who’s going to win is and go for the stronger team. Of course, most of the time they are correct. But the prices of the bookies reflect that and they keep losing in the long term. Try to avoid that at all costs and follow the public bet if you truly believe that your pick is profitable in the long run.
Conclusion
As you can see, NFL betting has a lot in common with other sports, but also many unique aspects that should always be considered. The tips covered in this article should give you a good starting point when trying to create a successful betting strategy.
We strongly encourage you to research the different markets out there like Money Line, Spreads, Over/Under points. Each of them has its own pros and cons. Finding the option that suits you best might take some time, but it will eventually reward your efforts. Also, don’t be afraid to experiment, try different approaches. You should constantly try to improve your betting strategy or you risk being left behind.
If you want to start betting on the NFL, we recommend trying the Bet365 bonus to place your bets.
last update : July 2024
