The National Basketball Association of the USA is by far the strongest basketball competition in the world. It is the home of the best players from all over the globe. It’s no surprise that it is also the most popular basketball league that has a huge fan base in many countries.
This is the main reason why betting on NBA games is very popular. Almost any bookmaker out there regularly offers various markets. In this article, we will cover the main aspect required for building a successful betting strategy.
The Stats Are Crucial
Various data about each team and player in the NBA can be found online. Whether you visit the official site of the league or one of the many that are dedicated to gathering stats, it’s easy to get plenty of information. This should always be your starting point.
The most important aspects are the average points scored and conceded of each team. However, it is not as simple as that. You should break that down depending on which franchise is hosting the game and get home/away stats for both teams.
Spare the time to find the best and worst aspects of each of teams. Try to predict how their playing styles will interact with each other. For example, a team that relies exclusively on the offence loses part of its edge when facing a great defence.
Always Watch The Schedule
The stats are the best way to get a good idea about the two teams. However, there are other crucial factors you should always consider. One of them is the schedule.
The teams in NBA are spread all across the USA. This means you will often see a franchise travel in different time zones to play a game. Ignoring this is almost criminal. Here are the most common ways to evaluate the impact of the schedule:
Pick Rested Teams Against Drained Opponents
When you’re trying to evaluate a certain match, start with the last couple of days before that. How many games did both team play in the past 4 or 5 days? Did they travel a lot? Did they win easily or had a tough fight that went to the wire?
Physical and mental fatigue plays a key part. If one of the teams played fewer games and had it easier, it’s reasonable to expect that it will perform close to its best. The difference could be huge if the opponent had to travel thousands of miles and had like 3-4 games in the past couple of days.
Be Careful With Teams That Played 4 Times In 5 Days
This is similar to the point above. According to the NBA schedule, sometimes a franchise will have 5 games within 6 days. Even if it has decent strength in depth, the last game or two are usually harder.
If you’re thinking about backing a team that is in such a situation, you should be extra careful. Especially if the team had to switch between different time zones and had to travel a lot.
Other Important Aspects Of NBA Betting
As in all other sports, the team selection is crucial. Make sure to check if there are injuries, suspensions or other reasons for players to miss the game. Many people know that, but don’t go the extra mile. It is not enough to know how’s going to miss the match, the impact on the team is what matters.
Certain franchises have plenty of strength in depth and hungry players waiting on the bench. Others are unable to cope without key players. Always make sure to check what’s the case to better understand how much weight the team selection will have.
Another important thing in this regard is the possible rotation. NBA coaches often tend to rest key players since the season is long and exhausting. The best example of this is Greg Popovich who constantly rotates the Spurs and it’s almost impossible to predict how many minutes each player will get.
Extra Motivation Could Be The Difference
The NBA is full of rivalries between franchises and different players. Some of the have started way back, others are fresh. Whatever the case, some games just provoke the players to give something extra. Make sure to include this in your pre-game analysis.
Another example for the motivation factor is when weak teams play the big guns at home. Every team out there wants to prove its worth against the likes of Golden State Warriors or Cleveland Cavaliers. This is especially true for the franchises at the bottom of the rankings. They rarely manage to complete a full surprise, but the matches are closer than expected. The best way to take advantage is to look for huge spreads, like more than 10-12 points and place a wager on the underdog.
Check The Rules Of The Bookmaker
This is especially important if you like to bet on under/over points. Most bookmakers include extra time in this calculation, but there are some exceptions. This might seem like a small thing, but everything matters in the long run. Obviously, you would prefer to bet on overs at sportsbooks that include overtime and under at bookies that don’t.
Don’t Go For Public Bets
Your main purpose in all kinds of sports betting is to find prices that contain positive expected value. This means that you will be winning more often than the odds suggests and register a consistent profit. One of the most certain ways to place a wager that doesn’t contain any positive value is to follow the so-called “public bets”. These are the games where all the recreational players will place their money, most of the time on the favourite.
This will force the bookmakers to adjust the odds offered to protect their profits. As a result, the price for the favourite is usually terrible. In fact, there are many successful tipsters who have a winning strategy to bet on the underdogs in such games. While this is not that simple, it’s the better approach when it comes to the matches that attract the largest cash flow.
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